Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet, Second Edition

eBook Details:

• Paperback: 282 pages
• Publisher: WOW! eBook; 2nd edition (March 31, 2023)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 1837630410
• ISBN-13: 978-1837630417

eBook Description:

Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet, 2nd Edition: Create and improve fully automated forecasts for time series data with strong seasonal effects, holidays, and additional regressors using Python

Prophet empowers Python and R developers to build scalable time series forecasts. This Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet, Second Edition book will help you to implement Prophet’s cutting-edge forecasting techniques to model future data with high accuracy using only a few lines of code.

You’ll begin by exploring the evolution of time series forecasting, from basic early models to present-day advanced models. After the initial installation and setup, you’ll take a deep dive into the mathematics and theory behind Prophet. You’ll then cover advanced features such as visualizing your forecasts, adding holidays and trend changepoints, and handling outliers. You’ll use the Fourier series to model seasonality, learn how to choose between an additive and multiplicative model, and understand when to modify each model parameter. This updated edition has a new section on modeling shocks such as COVID. Later on in the book you’ll see how to optimize more complicated models with hyperparameter tuning and by adding additional regressors to the model. Finally, you’ll learn how to run diagnostics to evaluate the performance of your models and discover useful features when running Prophet in production environments.

• Understand the mathematics behind Prophet’s models
• Build practical forecasting models from real datasets using Python
• Understand the different modes of growth that time series often exhibit
• Discover how to identify and deal with outliers in time series data
• Find out how to control uncertainty intervals to provide percent confidence in your forecasts
• Productionalize your Prophet models to scale your work faster and more efficiently

By the end of this Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet, 2nd Edition book, you’ll be able to take a raw time series dataset and build advanced and accurate forecasting models with concise, understandable, and repeatable code.